Minggu, 18 Oktober 2015

Indonesian Military Anniversary and Rupiah Rebound

Indonesian Military (TNI) Anniversary, Social Media Positive Sentiments & Investor Confident

A sudden and sharp strengthening of rupiah in any Asian Currencies rallied throughout last week starting on Monday, 5th October, astonished many analysts in disbelieved that such sudden inflection point phenomenon of strongest value gain in Rupiah against US dollar could ever happened in the midst of Rupiah crisis since beginning of 2015? Some analysts had different opinions: 1. Was it the Intervention by Bank Indonesia (BI) or the Third Government economic stimulus package ? 2. Was it some external factor, such as increase of interest rate by The Fed (Quantitative Easing), which was all economic macro factors Domestic and Global (ceteris paribus)?
Or could external political factor such as the 70th Anniversary of Indonesian Military (HUT TNI) on Monday, 5th October 2015 at Indah Kiat port, Cilegon trigger such sharp inflection point that strengthened Rupiah ? In the afternoon of 5th October President JKW speech as ceremony Chief Inspector, is it latest version of Jokowi effect?

Why focus on correlation between TNI Anniversary and fluctuation of rupiah ? The sudden inflection of strengthening rupiah starting on 5 October 2015, amids of weakening of rupiah from the Rupiah from the two diagram below:

Previously in September 2015, Rupiah was continued to weaken to the psychological lowest level of Rp 15,000, above Rp 14,700 (2/10), despite of two previous government economic stimulus to strengthen Rupiah that both failed. BI report late Wednesday (7/10) show the biggest drop of Indonesian Foreign Exchange Reserve fell US$ 3.6 Billion in September 2015 to US$ 101.7 Billion (30/9) closing on psychological level threshold of US$ 100 Billion. The Foreign Reserve has fallen 12 percent over the last seven months from US$ 114.25 Billion in January 2015 to its lowest level US$ 101.7 Billion(30th September 2015 ). Unfortunately, data show that Rupiah drops most significantly 4.1 percent in September 2015 (, 3.7% in August 2015) despite of BI intervention, just like pouring salt in the ocean; annihilated reason that this rupiah rebound caused by intervention of BI. “Save by the Bell” said some analyst usually during critical moment of a boxing match. Then, Rupiah was rebound starting October 5th , 2015 by 5.6% increased after President Jokowi speech during the TNI Anniversary.
Was the correlation between Rupiah rebound and HUT TNI just a coincidence? Could it be asymmetric war of positive sentiment for Rupiah in Social Media against previously Investor pessimism in Rupiah strength or speculator (invisible hand) ? 

Even external Global factor such as Fed Reserved rumor of increased interest rate was said to cause reversal and panic of US dollar capital outflow from Indonesian market (or Taper Tantrum effect), which causing the weakening of rupiah and had little to do with recent steep strengthening of Rupiah except weak US domestic employment data. Furthermore, starting 5th October, Out of 11 main Global Currencies; 8 currencies even show weakening and only 3 show mild increased such as Korean Won (1.2%); Japanese Yen (0.2%) and Thailand Bath (0.4%); but rupiah was the champion showing a very steep inflection point of 4.4%, next to Malaysian ringgit 3.4%.
Now remain the domestic factors at national level that could cause such positive sentiment that drove the unbelievable rebound of Rupiah 8.78 percent last week from Rp 14,719 on Friday (2nd October) to Rp 13,521 Friday(10th October). The Rupiah surged 3.1 percent high on Wednesday as the biggest single day’s gain since December 2008 provided domestic market optimism

On 5th of October there are two significant phenomena, first is the third Government economic stimulus package and the second was 70th TNI Anniversary (HUT TNI) parade. Analyzing the previous two economic stimulus packages that show very little effect on strengthening rupiah, on the other hand the second phenomena, 70th HUT TNI parade should be the only key factor that could strengthening of Rupiah with such magnitude as the Jokowi effect. The troops march parade was followed by unique attraction of Modern Integrated Warfare involving hundreds of fighter jets (F16 & Sukhoi); helicopters; Hercules military transport plane; 52 battle ships and submarine and hundreds of Army Tanks and artillery weaponry in an artillery life combat form, seldom displayed at any Global military parade. Discussion between Rudi Rusdiah, chairman of Computer Association, Apkomindo, Alumnus of Lemhannas PPRA XLII/2008 and member of Cyberdesk (DK2ICN) , MenkoPolhukam with foreign diplomats, ambassadors, military attaché and observers that were present in the 70th HUT TNI celebration revealed positive impressions and report brought back to their corresponding countries that the economic and geopolitics in Indonesia was very conducive and stable. Although, in 2015 many unfavorable phenomena happening such as the worst El Nino since 1998 and global commodity crisis that brought Rupiah down to its lowest level since 1998 Asian crisis. This 70th HUT TNI triggered positive sentiments that were tweets and send through many Social media such as Twitter, Facebook, Youtube creating positive signals in the monitoring command center and global cyberspace originating from Indah Kiat port, Cilegon. An anomaly that has often forgotten by many economic analyst on the power of social media and Netizen Indonesia (80 Millions) and Global (2 Billions).

Thousands of civilian, villagers were present and participated enthusiastically in the marching parade showing the close relationship between TNI (military) and civil society; not to mention when President Jokowi approached the crowd of thousands spectators creating positive sentiment. It trigger another ’ Jokowi effect’ and positive signals that Indonesia are politically safe, stable and the need of strong Military to vanguard largest archipelago nation with 7,9 million km square of sea, large domestic market and country with rich in natural resources potential, strengthening the value of rupiah due to increase flow of investment to Indonesia. Military Chief, Army General Gatot Nurmantyo referred as “Pesta Rakyat” (People’s party), Strong and Professional TNI together with the People defending Indonesian sovereignty and independent with Minimum Essential Force (MEF) policy. Even Global Firepower military analyst positioned Indonesia in the 12th Global Rank below US, Russia, China, India, UK, Korea, and Israel; above regional forces Singapore, Malaysia and even Australia. The day after His Majesty Sultan Brunei Darussalam granted the honorific ‘Dato Paduka Seri’ highest recognition on General TNI Gatot Nurmantyo, the Chief of Indonesian National Armed Forces. 

Hoping that Indonesian Government could maintain last week inflection point of strengthening rupiah until end of this year, where the needs of US currency still high for the following years, a strong TNI and never underestimate the power of positive net-citizen sentiments in Social Media driving back investor confidence during the Big Data era. Rudi Rusdiah –rrusdiah@yahoo.com

HUT TNI, Sentimen Positif Sosial Media & Penguatan Rupiah

Peningkatan tajam Rupiah diantara Mata Uang Global sejak 5 Oktober selama seminggu telah mengejutkan banyak konsultan dan analis keuangan yang tidak percaya akan terjadi fenomena titik infleksi (balik) penguatan Rupiah yang tajam terhadap Dolar AS ditengah terpuruknya rupiah semenjak awal 2015. Anomali peningkatan Rupiah ini oleh analis dan ekonom di kaitkan dengan beberapa isu: 1. Apakah karena intervensi Bank Indonesia (BI) atau Paket stimulus ekonomi ? 2. Apakah karena rencana kenaikan suku bunga The Fed (Quantitative Easing)? Semua ini adalah faktor ekonomi makro (Ceteris paribus) Global dan Domestik. Mungkinkah faktor politik diluar ekonomi seperti parade HUT TNI, 5 Oktober 2015 di-dermaga Indah Kiat, Cilegon dapat memicu titik infleksi penguatan Rupiah seusai pidato Presiden Jokowi sebagai Inspektur Upacara HUT TNI, apakah sebuah ‘Jokowi Effect’ yang lain ?

Sebelum 5 Oktober, rupiah terus melemah ke level psikologis Rp 15,000, diatas Rp 14,700 (2/10), meskipun sudah dilakukan dua kali paket stimulus ekonomi oleh pemerintah yang gagal menahan keterpurukan rupiah. Publikasi BI Rabu(7/10) memperlihatkan penggerusan Cadangan Devisa RI US$ 3.6 Miliar terbesar selama September 2015 menuju US$ 101.7 Miliar mendekati angka psikologis Cadangan Devisa US$ 100 Milyar. Cadangan devisa RI melorot sebesar 12 % dalam 7 bulan 2015, dari US$ 114.25 Miliar(Januari 2015) menjadi USD 101.7 Miliar (30 September 2015), sayangnya tanpa peningkatan Rupiah, malahan keterpurukan terparah Rupiah 4.1% bulan September (3.7% bulan Agustus) ditengah intervensi BI. BI seperti menabur garam di laut. “Save by the Bell” seloroh analis ekonom seperti melihat momen kritis pada pertandingan tinju dunia. Untungnya, disusul peningkatan kembali Rupiah 5.6% dibulan Oktober 2015, setelah pidato Jokowi di HUT TNI. 

Apakah ada korelasi antara HUT TNI dan menguatnya rupiah, sebuah keniscayaan atau faktor kebetulan saja? Ataukah sebuah perang asimetris antara sentiment positif HUT TNI di Social Media dengan sentiment negative investor dan spekulator (invisible hand) atau hilangnya kepercayaan pasar terhadap Rupiah? 

Bahkan faktor ekternal Global seperti rencana/ rumor peningkatan suku bunga oleh The FED, beberapa kali menjadi faktor melemahnya rupiah, karena investor panik dan terjadi pelarian investasi keluar RI (efek Taper Tantrum), yang direkayasa menjadi kemungkinan penguatan rupiah. Faktor lain memburuknya data tenaga kerja AS (5/10), hanya memperkuat 3 mata uang global seperti Won Korea (1.2%); Yen Jepang (0.2%); Bath Thailand (0.4%) dari 11 mata uang global; dan hanya Rupiah yang paling perkasa dengan peningkatan tajam 4.4% karena faktor HUT TNI disusul oleh Ringgit Malaysia (3.4%).

Jadi tinggal faktor domestic level nasional yang dapat membalikkan Rupiah secara drastis menguat 8.78 persen dalam seminggu dari Rp 14,719/US$ Jumat (2/10) menjadi Rp 13,521 Jumat (10/10). Rupiah menguat 3.1 persen dalam sehari Rabu (7/10), sebuah penguatan fantastis sejak Desember 2008, meningkatkan optimisme pasar valuta dan kepercayaan investor global. Pada 5 Oktober 2015, ada dua fenomena signifikan, pertama paket stimulus ekonomi pemerintah yang ketiga dan HUT TNI akbar dikuti defile seluruh kekuatan TNI dan alutsista serta peragaan memukau kekuatan AD, AL dan AU terintegrasi dalam perang semesta modern yang memberikan efek titik infleksi (pembalikan) rupiah secara tajam dalam seminggu kedepan; magnitude lebih kuat dari ‘Jokowi Effect’ sebelumnya. Defile parade militer yang diikuti atraksi unik gelar kekuatan perang modern terintegrasi oleh ratusan pesawat tempur jet F16 dan Sukhoi; helicopter; pesawat pengangkut Hercules; 52 kapal perang berbagai jenis; kapal selam dan ratusan kendaraan tank; lapis baja dan artileri dalam kondisi perang dan di luncurkan dalam scenario perang modern darat laut dan udara yang jarang diperagakan meski ditingkat global sekalipun. Dari diskusi Rudi Rusdiah, Ketua Asosiasi Komputer Apkomindo, Mastel dan alumni Lemhannas PPRA XLII/2008 serta anggota Desk Cyber (DK2ICN) Kemenko Polhukam dengan para diplomat asing; duta besar dan atase militer Negara sahabat yang hadir pada acara HUT TNI ke 70 ini tersirat profile, sentimen dan indikator positif yang dilaporkan ke negaranya masing-masing bahwa ekonomi dan geopolitik Indonesia sangat kondusif dan stabil. Padahal pada 2015 ini banyak sentimen negative karena El NINO terparah sejak 1998 dan krisis komoditi global dan krisis Negara-negara di dunia yang menyebabkan Rupiah ikut terpuruk sejak 1998 krisis Asean. HUT TNI tentu membawa angin segar memicu sentimen positif melalui Sosial Media OTT seperti Twitter; Facebook; Whatsapps; Youtube ke Netizen penjuru dunia dan command center OTT di Silicon Valley bersumberdari dermaga Indah Kiat, Cilegon. Sebuah Anomali kekuatan Social Media dan Netizen RI (80 juta) dan Global (2 miliar) yang sering dilupakan oleh pengamat pasar dan ekonom.

Ribuan masyarakat hadir dan partisipasi bahkan pada saat defile berparade di mimbar kehormatan diplomat Asing dan inspektur upacara oleh Presiden Jokowi bersama Panglima TNI Jenderal Gatot Nurmantyo. Disusul blusukan Presiden menyalami ribuan masyarakat usai pidato menciptakan sentiment luar biasa melebihi ‘Jokowi effect’ sebelumnya bahwa politik di Indonesia sangat stabil dan TNI; Pemerintah bersama Rakyat sangat dekat tanpa jarak birokrasi, menyebabkan kembalinya aliran investasi dan kepercayaan investor (asing). TNI yang kuat dan professional sangat dibutuhkan menjaga Negara kepulauan (archipelago) terbesar didunia dengan 7,9 juta kilometer persegi; pasar domestic dengan jumlah penduduk nomor 4 didunia; eksploitasi sumber daya alam dan hutan tropis, faktor deterrent, serta menghancurkan kekuatan asimetris baik spekulan global; narkoba dimasa datang. Jenderal Gatot Nurmantyo menyebut sebagai “Pesta Rakyat bersama TNI’, dimana TNI yang kuat, professional bersama rakyat mampu mempertahankan kedaulatan; kemerdekaan dan kemandirian NKRI dengan kebijakan Minimum Essential Force (MEF). Bahkan Global Firepower, analis militer dunia memposisikan TNI di ranking ke 12 setelah Amerika, Rusia, RRT, India, UK, Korea dan Israel. TNI jauh diatas kekuatan Negara tetangga seperti Singapura, Malaysia bahkan Australia dan Selandia Baru. Hari berikutnya Sultan Brunei Darrusalam memberikan penghormatan tertinggi ‘Dato Paduka Seri’ kepada Jenderal Gatot Nurmantyo.

Semoga Pemerintah Indonesia dapat mempertahankan momentum penguatan yang luar biasa selama seminggu pada HUT TNI ke 70 ditengah kebutuhan valuta asing untuk pembayaran hutang dan belanja modal pada akhir tahun ini. TNI yang kuat dan professional sangat dibutuhkan dan jangan meremehkan kekuatan sentiment positif Netizen; Social Media/OTT yang dapat memutar balik pelemahan rupiah dan kepercayaan investor menjadi indikator positif ekonomi Indonesia pada era Big Data. rrusdiah@yahoo.com